Having recently returned from another, and my latest, trip to China, I am left to ponder the new realities facing our President and the entire nation.  Unlike recent trips where I was struck by the pace and energy of the changes taking place in China, what struck me this time were (a) the photograph of our President bowing before the Japanese Emperor and (b) the reports, in both China and the United States, regarding our President’s visit to China as part of his Asian tour.  Then, upon my return to the United States, there was the much ballyhooed first State dinner that the President held in honor of the President of India.  Lastly, there was the President’s speech, delivered at West Point, where he set forth his new policy in Afghanistan.

Taken together, as they must, I am led to the conclusion that there is a new reality that is facing our leaders and our nation, and one that we are ill prepared to accept.  President Obama’s bowing before the Japanese Emperor was both a faux pas as well as being illustrative of how ill prepared we are to face this change.  When our President bowed before the Emperor of Japan, it was an attempt on his part, and as he was probably advised by his staff, to show a sense of respect to Japan and the Japanese people.  The reality is that such a bow was not necessary, even ill advised, but clearly and demonstrably illustrated how ill prepared we are to deal with understanding Asia.  While ill prepared, we are nevertheless compelled to accept the new reality that Asia, not Europe, needs to be the central focus our foreign policy efforts and concerns.  In that one gesture, at the inception of his first trip to Asia, the President was acknowledging this new reality, and at the same time, showing how ill prepared we are as a people to understand Asian culture.  A full bow was not necessary, as for his American audience, the President appeared more of a supplicant, than the firm leader of the United States.  There should have been more of a nuanced approach, but nuances take time to learn.  Therefore, the President should not be overly faulted for his attempt

In his meetings with the Chinese leadership, President Obama continued with his education.  I can clearly empathize with him and his learning curve.  For, now matter how much one has read and the briefings one receives regarding China, until one sees the stark reality of both China’s incredible past history and its unparalleled success in modernization, it is hard to comprehend the reality of both.  He was awe struck, as are almost all people, Chinese and foreigners alike, when they first see the Forbidden City and then the Great Wall of China.  I can only imagine, as there were no pictures, of the President’s awe at seeing both Shanghai and Beijing.  Statistics and reports of economic growth only make sense when they capable of being understood within a contextual context.  The cities of both Beijing and Shanghai, with their modern populations, incredible architecture, airports, roads, mass transit systems, and the efficiency with which cities each with populations in excess of thirty million people, are able to smoothly function must have given new meaning to the intelligence briefings he received prior to this trip. 

The tenor of his talks with the Chinese leadership, and the communiqué subsequently issued, stands as a clear acknowledgement of this new reality.  China is now a partner.  Not quite an ally, but a partner whom one has to account for, be engaged with, and treat with respect in dealing with the major issues facing the United States both at home and abroad.  China is our largest creditor nation, holding almost One Trillion Dollars of our national debt in securities. We are now bound together in a way that neither country thought possible only a decade ago.  China has a vested interest in the prosperity of the United States and in helping us out of our recession.  It is not for altruistic reasons.  It is because the value of the securities is tied directly to the strength of the United States.  And, we need their continued support and assistance to achieve our economic recovery.  We need more of their capital, more loans, and an increased level of their investment in the United States.  Interestingly enough, it was reported that the United States government would support Chinese banks or investors purchasing some of our smaller or medium sized banking institutions that are in financial trouble.  We can engage in an endless debate of our policy of deficit financing and need for Chinese capital.  Hopefully, we will eventually change our own way of doing business and governing in this country, but until such time as we start saving and investing our own money in our own country, we will need the assistance of China.

Both the United States and China share a common interest in being able to defuse the volatile situation in North Korea.  We are concerned with the threat of a nuclear Korea.  The Chinese are equally concerned about this but even more concerned that a bellicose and ostracized North Korea might lead to a war in East Asia and destabilize the political and economic framework they have created in East Asia.  While the United States has focused our concerns in Africa and the Middle East on “human rights” issues as manifested with our concerns with Darfur, the Chinese have been far more pragmatic and have developed very close relationships with the leadership amongst the countries in this region.  Both countries would prefer a far more stable Africa and both countries share an interest in halting the spread of terrorism.  Lest we forget, China has its own problems with Islamic terrorists and separatists in its central Asian provinces.  What is unique for the United States, and what is the new reality, is that the solution to problems we face are to be found working with China and our Asian partners, and far less with our European allies.  This is the new reality.  Europe is far less significant in foreign affairs than Asia in general, and specifically, China.

Second only to China, India is now the world’s fastest growing economy.  When President Obama hosted his first State dinner in honor of India’s President, it was a clear expression and recognition of India’s growing role and importance in Asia.  China and India have already begun a dialogue that is leading to their closer cooperation, and it was now time that the United States understood the new reality in South Asia – India has to be accounted for.  This marks a significant shift in our foreign policy.  Previously, the United States had been allied with Pakistan.  Given the Cold War mentality that had gripped our foreign policy for many years, and our narrow prism wherein we viewed the world as either “with us” or “against us”, India was, at best on the periphery as we never were comfortable with Nehru’s third way of neutrality or the policies of his successors.  We were far more comfortable with Pakistan who viewed us as a powerful ally and counterweight to their antagonist – India.  Throughout the Bush II administration, this remained our policy as we heavily courted and counted on Pakistan to be the bulwark and ally in our fight in Afghanistan.  The State dinner signified a shift in our understanding of the new realities in the world – India counts and we had better develop a closer relationship with them.

The Obama administration must be given credit for facing the new realities.  However, as experienced as we might be in dealing with the intricacies of Europe, we are as inexperienced in understanding the realities of Asia.  A case in point is the President’s new policy initiative in Afghanistan.  We are going to increase the number of American troops so that it will approach 100,000 men and women, and when combined with those of our European allies, almost 150,000 men and women.  And, that number is further supplemented by our use of hired mercenaries. i.e. Blackwater (Xe) and others, which account for another 100,000 men and woman.  Our commitment is only for three years, after which time the President wants to withdraw our forces.  Within this relatively short period of time, we expect Afghanistan to change from a semi-feudal society based on the cultivation of the opium poppy fields governed by regional and local warlords to a modern nation state.  We expect a President of Afghanistan who is both corrupt and lacking in any real power base outside of the capital to suddenly develop and create a modern nation state.  We expect that we can create a modern army and police force loyal to non-existent national government, and one firmly committed to achieving the goals of the United States in fighting terrorists.  We expect that the government of Pakistan is going to open its borders and allow U.S. forces to enter into its sovereign territories in order to pursue both the Taliban and Al Qaeda.  And, lastly, we expect Pakistan to both trust us and welcome us at the very same time that the United States is courting their nemesis – India. 

President Obama is to be credited for understanding the new reality where Asia must be the focal point for our foreign policy.  But, he is paying the price for our total lack of preparedness in understanding the intricacies of doing business in Asia.  Let’s hope his, and our learning curve is not to steep and does not take us too long to master.