Sale of Arms to Taiwan and our China Policy
I am trying to figure out the nature of our policy in regard to China in light of the announced sale of $6.5 Billion of missiles and helicopters plus other military equipment to Taiwan.
The problem that I have with figuring out our policy is that it seems another example of our policy of meddling, and other than adding to the bottom line of the defense contractors, seems to another example of our not having a real policy.
According to the Taiwan Relations Act, we have obligated ourselves to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack on the island by China. My first question is simply this – is it in our national interest to go to war with China over Taiwan ? The only time that a war would occur between Taiwan and China would be for Taiwan to declare its independence as a sovereign nation. Since we have already agreed with China that Taiwan is part of China – the “one China” policy statement agreed to by President Nixon and every subsequent President – would we go to war over Taiwan independence and therefore go against our “one China” policy ?
I suggest that any reasonable determination of our national interest would clearly indicate that it would not be in our national interest. Therefore, if we are not willing to go to war over Taiwan, then why do we purposively try to antagonize China when we need to develop greater policies of engagement with China ?
I have also been giving some serious thought into trying to develop an understanding regarding the overall nature of our foreign policy. While that will be the subject of a separate essay or two, one concept that keeps reverberating is that our policy can, at most times, be summarized in terms of “meddling”. We continually meddle in the internal affairs of other nations, want to engage in nation building in the hope we can duplicate “cookie cutter” other countries to emulate us. It strikes me that our meddling does more harm than good.
A case in point is precisely the China-Taiwan issue. It is clear that a number of years ago, when President Chen of Taiwan was posturing for Taiwan independence, relations between Taiwan and China were quite tense, and there was a real sense of unease in the Taiwan Straits. Since then, the new government in Taiwan and the government in China have, without our involvement, and on their own, achieved not only a lessening of tension, but a true rapprochement. There are now regular air flights between Taiwan and China. Chinese companies are now allowed to invest in Taiwan companies. There are direct cargo shipments. There has been an increasing level of dialogue between the two, and to this scholar’s eye, a political reintegration is only a matter of time – a relatively short period of time. The two economies are fully integrated. Taiwan companies have invested billions of dollars in China and operate innumerable factories. It has been estimated that there might be as many as 500,000 Taiwanese living and working in China. Without our involvement, without our shuttling diplomats to and fro, the two sides have clearly worked out a modus vivendi that will ultimately lead to political integration based on the Hong Kong model.
All of this is clearly in our national interest as it has reduced tension in the Taiwan Straits, and the absence of arm sales during this period has allowed the United States and China to develop a much closer working relationship. One of our complaints has been the lack of transparency in regard to the Chinese military. Understandably, our military planners would like to have greater knowledge about China’s military as China would like to have about ours. But, our need is much greater. To achieve this end and allow dialogue to occur, there have been a series of high level and mid level exchanges that have occurred between our military leaders and theirs. However, in response to the sale of the armaments to Taiwan, these exchanges have been indefinitely cancelled.
It is in our national interest to have China more involved on the world scene and more understanding of some of our concerns. We need China, as well as Russia, to support our efforts in an attempt to impose greater sanctions on Iran in order to halt Iran’s nuclear program. They are clearly less inclined now to do so. We need China’s support and involvement in working out a solution to the nuclear crisis in North Korea. On this topic, both the United States and China have a shared national interest, but it is China who has the greatest amount of leverage. I would suspect that in response to the arms sale, there will be less urgency on China’s part to solve the crisis.
In the geo-political realm, we need China’s support in dealing with the Afghanistan situation. Again, China’s self interests are also involved as China is equally concerned about Muslim extremists in the border region between Xinjiang and Afghanistan, and China has a strong interest in a stable Pakistan. But, why risk any level or degree of China’s support for the sake of an arm’s sale to Taiwan ?
The United States is in a dire economic condition, and with our burgeoning deficit, we have, unfortunately, become dependent on China to purchase our treasury bonds and help finance our national debt. Clearly, we wish it were otherwise, and that we were not already in debt to China to the tune of about one trillion dollars. Until such time as we can straighten up our own financial affairs, and begin to get out of debt, our need for China to continue to both purchase future debt, and to support the value of the U.S. dollar is clearly in our self interest. Why then do we wish to jeopardize a relationship for the sake of arms sales to Taiwan ?
Lots of questions, and have not able to develop a satisfactory answer. I will accept enlightenment from all sources.
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